Regional Patterns of Fertility in Indonesia: Evidence from the 1991 and 1994 Indonesia Demographic and Health Surveys by Kasmiyati and Andrew Kantner. East-West Center Working Papers, Population and Health Series, No. 99. December 1997. 104 pp.

Abstract

The 1994 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS) reported a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.9, a decline from 5.6 during the period 1967-70. One of the major factors responsible for this fertility decline has been contraceptive use. According to the 1994 IDHS, 55 percent of currently married women are using contraception.

At the regional level, however, fertility and contraceptive use do not appear to be highly correlated. Provinces with lower fertility rates, such as Jakarta and East Java, do not always have higher levels of contraceptive use. This paper provides an assessment of regional fertility patterns by means of a synthetic cohort analysis of fertility using data from the 1991 and 1994 IDHS. Results show that unexpectedly low levels of fertility are associated with a relatively high proportion of women never married and high levels of infecundity. In a few provinces, actual fertility levels may also be underreported.

Results also show that many women have an unmet need for family planning, particularly for limiting births. In fact, unmet need actually rose slightly between 1991 and 1994, suggesting that the Indonesian family planning program should place more emphasis on long-term and permanent contraceptive methods such as IUDs and sterilization.

A large proportion of women, at all levels of education, plan to space their children more closely than recommended, increasing their own and their children's health risks. Efforts to promote longer birth intervals should be directed toward all women, not just disadvantaged women with little schooling.