Has Population Growth Restricted Improvements in Per Capital Food Availability, 1970-1995? by Østein Kravdal (Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1095, Blindern, N-0317, Oslo, Norway). East-West Center Working Papers, Population Series, No. 106. April 1999. 25 pp.

Abstract

It is estimated, on the basis of data from FAO and some other sources, that high population growth in countries with an initial average calorie intake below 2800 has contributed to inhibit improvements in per capita food production and availability during the 1980s and early 1990s. There are statistically significant negative effects of population growth on the growth in noncereal food crops, milk and meat production, and total food production. Because also net food import and aid shipments of cereals have responded similarly, rather than being compensatory factors, the development in total per capita calorie supply has been least satisfactory in countries with the most rapid population growth. A rapid increase among adults appears to be no less disadvantageous for food production and availability than an increase among young or elderly. Weaker effects are found when the entire 1970-95 period is considered.

Estimates from interactive models, which are not very robust, suggest that the poorest countries have suffered more than others from rapid population growth. There are no indications that a low literacy level or land or water scarcity have made it particularly difficult to cope with population growth.